تفاصيل الرسالة العلمية

This study aimed at analyzing the nature and direction of the relationship between the fluctuations in the prices of gold, crude oil and exchange rate of the Jordanian Dinar and the performance of the general index of Amman Stock Exchange for the period (2000 ? 2013), using monthly data. The study tested the stillness of the chronological chains by applying Augmented Dickey ? Fuller (ADF), Phillips ? Perron (PP) tests and long ? term relation test between the study`s variables by using Johansen?s co? integration test and vector Autoregression model (VAR) depending on Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition analysis. The results of Johansen test showed a long?term integral relationship between all the variables of the first and second models except for the financial sector index weighted by free float shares. The test of vector Autoregression model indicated a negative relationship between the prices of crude oil and all the indicators of the economic sectors of Amman Stock Exchange, in addition to a negative relationship between the exchange rate of the Jordanian Dinar Versace Euro and the general index weighted by free float shares. The results of variance Decomposition analysis showed that the crude oil price variable had the greatest explanatory ability for the fluctuations in all the indicators weighted by free float shares. The analysis of Impulse Response Function pointed out that the positive trauma of gold prices reduces (in most response periods) the performance of all the indicators weighted by free float shares. Furthermore, it also showed that the positive trauma of the real exchange rate of the Jordanian Dinar against the U.S. Dollar leads (in most response periods) to the reduction of the general index performance in Amman Stock Exchange